Calculus of Variations and Geometric Measure Theory

G. Gilioli - G. Sperandio - M. Colturato - A. Battisti - N. Mori - B. Cavagna - A. Bianchi - G. Paola

Modelling diapause termination and phenology of the Japanese beetle Popillia japonica

created by michele on 22 Sep 2021


Published Paper

Inserted: 22 sep 2021
Last Updated: 22 sep 2021

Journal: J. Pest Sci.
Pages: 12
Year: 2021


We developed a mechanistic, stage-structured model simulating the phenology of Popillia japonica. The model simulates the infuence of soil temperature on the larval diapause termination and on the development rate function of post-overwintering larvae and pupae. Model parameters are estimated based on literature evidence for pupae development and on a parameterisation process that allows estimating parameters for larval diapause termination and for the development rate function (and the related uncertainty) of postoverwintering larvae. Data used for model parameterisation and validation refer to time-series adult trap catches collected during the P. japonica monitoring programme performed by the Phytosanitary Service of Lombardy Region within the infested area in Lombardy (Italy) from 2015 to 2019. A total of 12 randomly selected locations are used to estimate biologically realistic model parameters (parameterisation dataset). We applied a Jackknife nonparametric resampling procedure on the parameterisation dataset to quantify uncertainty associated with parameters’ estimates. Parameterised model is then validated on time-series adult trap catches data referring to a diferent set of 12 randomly selected locations (validation dataset) surveyed in Lombardy. The model successfully predicted the beginning of adult emergence and the overall curve of adult emergence in the validation dataset. The model presented can support the defnition of the best timing for the implementation of monitoring and control activities for the local and the area-wide management of P. japonica.

Keywords: Pest management, Mechanistic model, Popillia japonica, Pest phenology, Pest control