Published Paper

Inserted: 22 sep 2021
Last Updated: 19 jan 2022

Journal: Math. Biosci.
Volume: 335
Pages: 36
Year: 2021

Abstract:

The assessment and the management of the risks linked to insect pests can be supported by the use of hysiologically-based demographic models. These models are useful in population ecology to simulate the dynamics of stage-structured populations, by means of functions (e.g., development, mortality and fecundity rate functions) realistically representing the nonlinear individuals physiological responses to environmental forcing variables. Since density-dependent responses are important regulating factors in population dynamics, we propose a nonlinear physiologicallybased Kolmogorov model describing the dynamics of a stagestructured population in which a time-dependent mortality rate is coupled with a nonlocal density-dependent term. We prove existence and uniqueness of the solution for this resulting highly nonlinear partial differential equation. Then, the equation is discretized by finite volumes in space and semi-implicit backward Euler scheme in time. The model is applied for simulating the population dynamics of the fall armyworm moth (Spodoptera frugiperda), a highly invasive pest threatening agriculture worldwide.

Keywords: numerical simulation, Physiologically-based models, Pest management, Invasive species, Solvability of nonlinear Kolmogorov equations, Spodoptera frugiperda

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• Michele Colturato-Paper7-@Colturato@ - Kolmogorov.pdf