<div dir="ltr"><p class="" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:18pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">NO
FREE LUNCH SEMINAR</span><span style="font-size:18pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"></span></p>
<p class="" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">seminari di finanza quantitativa</span></p>
<p class=""><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"> </span></p>
<h2 style="text-align:center"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Giovedì
19 febbraio 2014</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"></span></h2>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:9pt;text-align:center;line-height:18pt"><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">ore 13.00</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-left:9pt;text-align:center;line-height:18pt"><u><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Scuola Normale Superiore</span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-left:9pt;text-align:center;line-height:18pt"><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Pisa</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-left:9pt;text-align:center;line-height:18pt"><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Aula Bianchi
(Scienze)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"><span style="text-decoration:none"> </span></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span style="font-size:22pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Roberto Baviera</span></b></p>
<pre style="text-align:center"><i><span style="font-size:12.5pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial">Financial Engineering, Dipartimento di Matematica, <span style="text-align:start">Politecnico di Milano</span></span></i><i><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"></span></i></pre>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"> </span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Terrà un
seminario dal titolo:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"> </span></p>
<pre style="text-align:center"><font size="6"><b><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">“</span></i></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial">A thermometer for financial instability in the euro area economy and </span></b></font></pre><pre style="text-align:center"><font size="6"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial">the role of carry trade</span></b><b><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">”</span></i></b></font></pre><pre style="text-align:center"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"><font size="6"> </font></span></b></pre>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify"><b><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Abstract:</span></i></b></p>
<p style="text-align:justify;background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color:black"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">This study
suggests a simple financial instability indicator for the euro area economy.</font></span></i></p>
<p style="background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color:black"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">It works as a discrete thermometer with three possible
outcomes depending on the severity of the crisis. This indicator is based on
the specific shape of the credit term structure for the two main peripheral
countries in the area. The paper discusses how some key features of term
structure are linked to government debt carry trade.</font></span></i></p>
<p style="text-align:justify;background-image:initial;background-repeat:initial"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color:black"><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">In order
to assess the performance of the proposed market-based indicator, the paper
shows how the identified episodes of financial turmoil are related with the
timing and the intensity of unconventional measures in the euro area.</font></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"><br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a
partecipare.</span></p>
<p class=""><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif">Classe di Scienze Matematiche e Naturali</span></p><p class=""><span style="font-size:16pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif"><br></span></p><div><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div>Valeria Giuliani</div><div>Scuola Normale Superiore</div><div>Servizio alla Didattica e Allievi</div><div>tel. 050 509260</div><div>Piazza dei Cavalieri, 7</div><div>56126 Pisa</div><div>E-mail: <a href="mailto:valeria.giuliani@sns.it" target="_blank">valeria.giuliani@sns.it</a></div><div>E-mail: <a href="mailto:classi@sns.it" target="_blank">classi@sns.it</a></div></div></div></div>
</div>